tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63699648841477436722024-02-07T05:10:19.539-05:00Diaries of a SimiteUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-42863151071691882932009-11-16T22:59:00.001-05:002009-11-16T23:03:47.052-05:00A Few Questions<span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:arial;font-size:small;"><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Unprepared to write a proper entry, I offer only a few questions. I hope further analysis and discussion follows.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br />America's relationship with Iran cannot continue to muddle along. War or rapprochement?</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br />China is at a cross roads. Fundamental reform is dangerous in a country with a history of unrest but can they afford to let their dollar reserves grow ever higher?</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br />America remains lost in Afghanistan. What price will she ultimately pay there?</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br />India and Japan are taking the first steps towards </span></span><a href="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/InformationDissemination/~3/hxi8IUYGqp4/proactive-asian-security.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">forging a defense partnership</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">. How interesting.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br />Russia is contemplating a change in national strategy with a new version of </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perestroika"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Perestroika</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">. Will they relive the </span></span><a href="http://allpics4u.com/www/slike/funny/medvedev_drunk/2.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">90s</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> or the </span></span><a href="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2009-01-12-ski2.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">00s</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">?</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">The Lisbon Treaty is possibly moving forward. Can the trend of European federalization continue and to what effect?</span></span></div><div><br /></div></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-90093111203755433842009-01-28T18:53:00.002-05:002009-01-28T18:58:32.236-05:00Chapter 6: Realpolitik Turns on Itself<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">A long time ago, </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klemens_Wenzel_von_Metternich"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Metternich</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> pointed me to </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_kissinger"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Henry Kissinger's</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Diplomacy-Touchstone-book-Henry-Kissinger/dp/0671510991/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1233186901&sr=8-1"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Diplomacy</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">.</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">I read the following passage today, the conclusion of chapter six, and was inspired to write. About what? I'm not sure yet. But in the meantime, I include it in full for your consumption. Any thoughts on the subject are, as always, appreciated.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial; font-size: 13px; "><p><span><span style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span></span></p><blockquote><p><span><span style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">If a Metternich-type system based on legitimacy is not possible, America will have to learn to operate in a balance-of-power system, however uncongenial it may find such a course. In the nineteenth century, there were two models for balance-of-power systems: the British model exemplified by the Palmerston/Disraeli approach; and Bismarck’s model. The British approach was to wait for the balance of power to be threatened directly before engaging itself, and then almost always on the weaker side; Bismarck’s approach sought to prevent challenges from arising by establishing close relations with as many parties as possible, by building overlapping alliance systems, and by using the resulting influence to moderate the claims of the contenders.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">Strange as it may seem in light of America’s experiences with Germany in the course of two world wars, the Bismarck style of operating a balance of power is probably more attuned to the traditional American approach to international relations. The Palmerston/Disraeli method would require a disciplined aloofness from disputes and a ruthless commitment to the equilibrium in the face of threats. Both the disputes and the threats would have to be assessed almost entirely in terms of balance of power. America would find it quite difficult to marshal either the aloofness or the ruthlessness, not to mention the willingness to interpret international affairs strictly in terms of power.</span></span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">Bismarck</span></span></span></span></span><span><span style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;">’s later policy sought to restrain power in advance by some consensus on shared objectives with various groups of countries. In an interdependent world, America will find it difficult to practice Great Britain’s splendid isolation. But it is also unlikely that it will be able to establish a comprehensive system of security equally applicable to all parts of the world. The most likely – and constructive – solution would be partially overlapping alliance systems, some focusing on security, others on economic relations. The challenge for America will be to generate objectives growing out of American values that can hold together these various groupings.</span></span></span></span></span></p></blockquote><p><span><span style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span></span></p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-11145871982079335782009-01-21T10:47:00.010-05:002009-01-21T11:39:14.851-05:00Logistics and Afghanistan<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgARs59m7C8VzrCSWE6Y5rAib5ceGIZevJFxmKGRrTk_4DyXu6SmVWfLGwR81XsABwhy8XJg4VdxfEOCpUCyKvACK5ieVsJwE9cqzdF5JV2FG1yWN5jSr4WBd_QG2uoSABNaCVWHpEcoQZV/s1600-h/AfghanLogistics-800.jpg" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></span><img style="text-decoration: underline;display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 248px; " src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgARs59m7C8VzrCSWE6Y5rAib5ceGIZevJFxmKGRrTk_4DyXu6SmVWfLGwR81XsABwhy8XJg4VdxfEOCpUCyKvACK5ieVsJwE9cqzdF5JV2FG1yWN5jSr4WBd_QG2uoSABNaCVWHpEcoQZV/s320/AfghanLogistics-800.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5293774693980518066" /></a><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://web.stratfor.com/images/AfghanLogistics-800.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">[source Stratfor]</span></span></a></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">There is an old military adage: amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. For an occupying power seven thousand miles from home, logistical problems can be especially acute. Currently, America has two re-supply routes for its forces in Afghanistan, both of which transit Pakistan. The most heavily used route goes through the heart of Taliban power in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and across the Khyber Pass.<br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Over the past few months, Taliban attacks on NATO supply convoys have markedly increased. The Pakistani government has repeatedly been forced to close the Khyber Pass temporarily while they attempt (and fail) to crack down on militants in the area. While this began as a minor headache, the problem has grown. Meanwhile, America's forces in Afghanistan are set to increase under Barack Obama.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">One option for a new supply route is through Iran. Hard as it is to believe, a reconciliation with Iran is hardly out of the question, and Iran materially supported our overthrow of the Taliban. Nevertheless, Iran would not be a short-term solution and America would be hesitant to give Tehran such a great degree of leverage before negotiations over Iraq and Iran's nuclear program have been settled.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Another option is a northern route, through Central Asian territory and perhaps Russia. However, with Moscow flexing her muscles in her near abroad, and America supporting resistance in a wide arc from Estonia to Georgia and beyond, the price for a re-supply route would not be cheap: likely Ukraine. As Stratfor </span></span><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090114_afghanistan_logistical_alternative"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">correctly notes</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">: "there is too much at stake, and the window of opportunity is too narrow for Moscow to simply play nice with the new American administration without a much broader strategic agreement and very real concessions."</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">And yet, what comes across my desk today? The headline </span></span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/21/world/asia/21pstan.html?_r=1&ref=world"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">U.S. Secures New Supply Routes to Afghanistan</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">“There have been agreements reached, and there are transit lines now and transit agreements for commercial goods and services in particular that include several countries in the Central Asian states and also Russia,” [Petraeus] said.</span></span></span></blockquote></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">What was the price? Are the new supply routes worth the cost? I don't know. I'll update once Stratfor publishes an analysis.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-43611898506463105842009-01-13T08:28:00.010-05:002009-01-14T13:32:57.182-05:00The Devolution of Al-Qaeda<div style="text-align: left; font-family: verdana;font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-style: italic;font-size:78%;"></span></div><blockquote style="font-family: verdana;font-family:verdana;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Osama saw himself as an inspirer of jihad, not a cult leader or a dictator.</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> </span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="border-collapse: collapse;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">-</span><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Bin-Ladens-Arabian-American-Century/dp/1594201641/ref=rsl_mainw_dpl?ie=UTF8&m=ATVPDKIKX0DER"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century</span></a></span></div></span></blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: verdana;font-size:78%;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><span style="border-collapse: collapse;"></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">I read that line last night and was immediately reminded of the following passage:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Al Qaeda [changed] from a smaller core group of professional operatives into an operational model that encourages independent "grassroots" jihadists to conduct attacks, or into a model in which al Qaeda provides the operational commanders who organize grassroots cells. We referred to this shift as devolution because it signified a return to al Qaeda's pre-9/11 mode. - </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Stratfor</span></a></span></blockquote></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">The line from </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">The Bin Ladens</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> refers to the late 1980s after the jihad in Afghanistan was winding down. </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salem_bin_Laden"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Salem Bin Laden</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">, Osama's eldest brother and patriach of the fifty-four Bin Laden siblings, had just died in a plane crash. Osama was increasingly drifting away from his original mentor, </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Yusuf_Azzam"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Abdullah Azzam</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">, and the </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Muslim Brotherhood</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">, and towards the more militant </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayman_al-Zawahiri"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Ayman al-Zawahiri</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">. Through his family's money and connections to the Saudi royal family, he had been an influential financier of Afghanistan jihad, and through his family's business, he had been particularly useful constructing a complex network of caves and tunnels along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. With another super power occupying Afghanistan, and the </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">mujaheddin</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> once again forced to fight an insurgency along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, there has been a devolution of tactics. Fortunately, it appears this has the effect of making Western attacks less frequent. On the other hand, it makes America's strategic interests in South Asia more difficult to accomplish. I asked </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Klemens_Wenzel_von_Metternich"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Metternich</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">: </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><blockquote style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">If America killed Osama Bin Laden, or captured him, would this strengthen this new 'grass roots' al Qaeda by giving them a martyr, have no effect because he's been hiding for so long anyway, or weaken al Qaeda by depriving them of a key figure? </span></blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">This is a question worth considering. Osama is not likely to stay alive and free forever. Obama has promised to step up efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan. General Petraeus is Commander, U.S. Central Command. America will likely bring renewed focus and resources to the region. So what would be the effects of his capture? What would be the effects of his death? Put on trial, he would have a platform to speak to the world. Killed, I agree with the </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Klemens_Wenzel_von_Metternich"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Prince's</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> assessment that "</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(2, 19, 36); font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">al-Qaida would use [Osama] to inspire a generation of jihadists."</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> Between a rock and a hard place. But what if there were a third way? Osama would be silent publicly but still alive. Meanwhile, the integrity of his </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">brand</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> would </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Musab_al-Zarqawi"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">decline</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">. In other words, the current situation today. Osama hasn't appeared in a </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videos_of_Osama_bin_Laden#May_18.2C_2008"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">video</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> in over a year. He is less relevant and less influential than eight years ago. They've ki</span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">lled many more fellow Muslims than Americans. My </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Klemens_Wenzel_von_Metternich"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">correspondent</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> notes that "</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; color: rgb(2, 19, 36); font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;font-size:13px;"><span><span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">as events have borne out in Iraq, al-Qaida's senseless brutality and complete lack of ecumenicalism ensures that" they lose credibility in Muslim eyes. On purpose? Not </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">likely</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">. That's okay. The effect is the same. </span></span></span></span> </span></div></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-2317586046892811542009-01-09T11:56:00.007-05:002009-11-16T22:23:52.045-05:00Republic or Empire<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjESMaeyW672PaSU2dQLqIc9tzzdbpmMfERLIhIRySG2zps-U5457ZgQeifyBL5COz5vb1OFILQXbFw35jeosNUZbqWHRtXa_KA2Mdm3bU1NhHbvf2gvFod63scq9v1kK21vNQBYUsJYmD/s1600-h/33bad846be80d9194bedbf1244d06b7f6db6d8e6.jpg" style="text-decoration: none;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></span><img style="text-decoration: underline;display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 296px; " src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjESMaeyW672PaSU2dQLqIc9tzzdbpmMfERLIhIRySG2zps-U5457ZgQeifyBL5COz5vb1OFILQXbFw35jeosNUZbqWHRtXa_KA2Mdm3bU1NhHbvf2gvFod63scq9v1kK21vNQBYUsJYmD/s320/33bad846be80d9194bedbf1244d06b7f6db6d8e6.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5289339461483116482" /></a><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://web.stratfor.com/images/europe/map/Russia-MonoG-Expansion-800.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">[source </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Stratfor</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">]</span></span></a></span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); line-height: 18px; font-family:'Trebuchet MS';"><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">That's a great question as Solzhenitsyn wanted an ethnic Russia which occupied Belarus, half the Ukraine and the northern chunk of Kazakhstan. - </span></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6369964884147743672&postID=6585835356893493170"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Sometimes Metternich, Comment #5</span></span></a></blockquote></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Response by </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Stratfor</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">:</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(50, 50, 50); line-height: 24px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span></div><blockquote><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(50, 50, 50); line-height: 24px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Russia — modern, medieval or otherwise — cannot count on natural features to protect it.... </span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(50, 50, 50); line-height: 24px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">That leaves buffers. So long as a country controls territory separating itself from its foes — even if it is territory that is easy for a hostile military to transit — it can bleed out any invasion via attrition and attacks on supply lines. Such buffers, however, contain a poison pill. They have populations not necessarily willing to serve as buffers. Maintaining control of such buffers requires not only a sizable standing military for defense but also a huge internal security and intelligence network to enforce central control. And any institution so key to the state’s survival must be very tightly controlled as well. Establishing and maintaining buffers not only makes Russia seem aggressive to its neighbors but also forces it to conduct purges and terrors against its own institutions in order to maintain the empire. - </span></span><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081014_geopolitics_russia_permanent_struggle"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">George Friedman, </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Stratfor</span></span></span></a></span></span></div></blockquote><blockquote><blockquote><div></div></blockquote><div></div></blockquote><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Solzhenitsyn's borders never happened. They would have left Russia vulnerable from the South - through the Caucasus Mountains and up the Steppes - and from the West - along the Northern European plain. Russia's solution, as noted by Dr. Friedman, is control of buffer zones in the West, East, and South, with hostile populations. In </span></span><a href="http://diariesofasimite.blogspot.com/2009/01/geography-of-geopolitics-russia.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Why Chechnya First</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">?, Metternich and I concluded that Putin was trying to re-establish the buffers lost in 1990, beginning with a region both important and within the Russian Federation's borders.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Was this necessary? Were they following a strategy that had become obsolete? The buffer strategy contains an unstated assumption that the benefit of the buffers outweighs the cost of the hostile populations. When French cavalry or German tanks come marching East, that assumption was correct. I do not think this holds true today.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Technology has changed the equation, both the costs and the benefits.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">On the one hand, the cost of controlling a hostile population has risen considerably. While technology does aid the suppression of dissent, it has a much greater effect in increasing the capabilities of an insurgency to do greater damage, further from home.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">On the other hand, the benefit of a buffer zone has decreased in two ways. First, a nuclear state cannot currently be conquered. Second, a modern army would have a much easier time crossing the buffers than either the </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_French_Empire"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">First French Empire</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> or the </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">Third Reich</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">. Both the necessity and the </span></span><span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">utility</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"> of the buffers has decreased.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">So could the Russian Federation retreat to Solzhenitsyn's borders? Would that have been a smarter move for Putin? Rather than an attempt at the ressurection of a Russian Empire, should he have pursued an ethnic Russian Republic? Perhaps. SIM.</span></span></div></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-65858353568934931702009-01-08T21:11:00.006-05:002009-01-09T17:30:59.893-05:00Why Chechnya First?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM_RDkVjIwVaLO5HzkVfgLttP59Vo0Ug9CpzEQT6RfH6pIZK-aZeRaYKivw-QfWpVZDopddZ4vb3BpPWkX_2MMD3E-9a4c6CIpXJ6_qoGCkD2-Yc1QNa2qihbdC5yEU-qo7tLezBttkfrj/s1600-h/Russia-MonoG-Threat-800.jpg"><blockquote></blockquote><blockquote></blockquote><blockquote></blockquote><blockquote></blockquote><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 296px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM_RDkVjIwVaLO5HzkVfgLttP59Vo0Ug9CpzEQT6RfH6pIZK-aZeRaYKivw-QfWpVZDopddZ4vb3BpPWkX_2MMD3E-9a4c6CIpXJ6_qoGCkD2-Yc1QNa2qihbdC5yEU-qo7tLezBttkfrj/s320/Russia-MonoG-Threat-800.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5289113685906582722" /></a><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://web.stratfor.com/images/europe/map/Russia-MonoG-Threat-800.jpg"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">[source Stratfor]</span></span></a></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><blockquote></blockquote><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(50, 50, 50); font-style: normal; line-height: 24px; font-family:Arial;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></p><blockquote><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Russia’s defining characteristic is its indefensibility. Unlike the core of most states that are relatively defensible, core Russia is limited to the region of the medieval Grand Principality of Muscovy. It counts no rivers, oceans, swamps or mountains marking its borders — it relies solely on the relatively inhospitable climate and its forests for defense. Russian history is a chronicle of the agony of surviving invasion after invasion.</span></span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Traditionally these invasions have come from two directions. The first is from the steppes — wide open grasslands that connect Russia to Central Asia and beyond — the path that the Mongols used. The second is from the North European Plain, which brought to Russia everything from the Teutonic Knights to the Nazi war machine. -</span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081014_geopolitics_russia_permanent_struggle"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">George Friedman, Stratfor</span></span></a></span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">I was talking with a </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Klemens_Wenzel_von_Metternich"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">friend</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> about the S</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 19px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">econd Chechen War. This is a </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_2042"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">personal issue</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> for me. I asked my friend, why Chechnya? Why was that </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">his </span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">first priority?</span></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"></span></span></span></span></p><blockquote><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Firstly, it's growing rapidly and the demographic bulge pushes against Eastern European Russia at the Urals.</span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 19px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; line-height: normal; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Secondly, the energy in the region is rich and important (the Caspian, Azerbaijan and the pipelines to the Black Sea).</span></span></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: italic;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span></span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "></p></blockquote><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">He has a point. Checnya is on the wrong side of the Caucasus Mountains. Russia could hardly expect to </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">project power</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;"> outside it's borders without stability and control inside them. And control of the regions energy resources has certainly </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia-Ukraine_gas_dispute#Cutting_off_supply_.28January_2009.29"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">proved to be useful</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">. </span></span><a href="http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/PLXX0012?lswe=Krakow,%20POLAND&lwsa=WeatherLocalUndeclared&from=searchbox_typeahead"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Brrr</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: verdana;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">. SIM.</span></span></span></p></span></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6369964884147743672.post-26093921575082753352008-02-17T19:32:00.000-05:002008-02-17T19:40:04.798-05:00Tsar Serafim the First<span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have been forced from my home. It is not safe for me there. Pitfalls abound. I have taken up residence here. In exile I may speak freely. SIM.<br /></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com